Can the Volunteers get it done?
The Tennessee Volunteers are dancing once again. Just narrowly missing out on a No. 1 seed, Tennessee landed the No. 2 seed in the Midwest region. They’ll open with 15-seed Wofford on Thursday evening.
Tennessee is an 18.5 point favorite in their first round matchup against the Terriers, according to Fanduel Sportsbook. The winner will advance to face the winner of No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 Utah State.
Tennessee’s path to the Final Four
The first weekend
The Volunteers draw one of the weakest teams in the entire NCAA Tournament, thanks to an upset in the SoCon Tournament. Wofford, a No. 6 seed in the tournament, ended up punching their ticket after top seeds Chattanooga and UNC Greensboro went down. The Terriers went 10-8 in SoCon play.
Looking ahead to the second round, a couple of interesting teams await them. 7-seed UCLA turned their season around after a tough start to Big Ten play. Sitting at 2-4 in the conference, Mick Cronin engineered a seven-game win streak. That stretch included wins over Oregon, Wisconsin and Michigan State. The Bruins improved on the defensive end, cracking the top 20 of KenPom’s defensive efficiency.
10-seed Utah State was breezing through the season before a few weeks ago, where they dropped three of their last six. That’s notable considering that they had just lost three times all season before that stretch. The Aggies hold wins over Iowa, South Florida, San Diego State, Boise State and Colorado State.
Utah State is a top 20 offense, per KenPom. Guards Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev lead the way, both averaging over 14 points per game while shooting nearly 40 percent from three-point range.
Sweet 16
Ah yes, we’ve all stared at it all week long — that looming potential matchup with Kentucky. It would be the third time the two teams would meet this season, with the Wildcats taking the first two.
Kentucky earned a No. 3 seed in the Midwest, posting a 10-8 record in SEC play. The Wildcats did everything possible to blow their second-round game against Oklahoma in Nashville in the SEC Tournament, then were dismantled by Alabama in the quarterfinals. Kentucky is a tough one to figure out, clearly capable of beating top teams yet inconsistent enough to be upset.
Their path to the Sweet 16 starts with 14-seed Troy, then a matchup with Illinois, Texas or Xavier. Kentucky has already lost to Texas once this season, while Xavier is one of the hotter teams in the country right now. Illinois has been extremely hit or miss down the stretch.
Let’s just assume Kentucky can get through — can they really beat Tennessee three times? Consider this. Strangely enough, the Wildcats shot 50 percent (12-24) from three-point range in both meetings. They also shot 50 percent overall from the field in both games. Considering Tennessee’s defensive ability, I’d put money on those numbers not happening a third time.
Elite Eight
Can anyone get past Houston here? It’s March, so the answer is obviously yes, but they’ll have their work cut out for them. The first test for the Cougars figures to be Gonzaga, who landed a No. 8 seed. Interestingly enough, the Zags have the third best odds to advance out of the Midwest and make the final four, per Fanduel Sportsbook.
It was a down year by Mark Few standards, but Gonzaga is still a KenPom darling, ranking 9th overall. The Zags rank 9th in offensive efficiency, powered by point guard Ryan Nembhard who leads the nation in assists per game. Do they have enough to get past the tough, defense-first Houston Cougars though?
Let’s say they don’t. Houston’s path is fairly easy. Clemson lacks firepower to hang with the Cougars and faces a tough first round game against McNeese. Purdue struggled down the stretch and seems to lack the depth necessary to hang with the elite.
Houston has won 13 straight. Before dropping one in overtime to Texas Tech, they won another 13 straight. Interestingly enough though, two of their losses came against the SEC — Alabama and Auburn.
Kelvin Sampson’s team is completely loaded, particularly at guard. Baylor transfer LJ Cryer leads the way averaging 15.2 points per game. Junior guard Milos Uzan is coming off of a 25 point performance in the Big 12 title game. Junior guard Emmanuel Sharp scored 26 in the Big 12 semifinals. All three shoot better than 42 percent from three-point range. Add in 6-8, physical forward J’Wan Roberts and you have a really complete basketball team.
Houston is +600 to win in all in San Antonio. Can Tennessee — who plays an eerily similar style — derail the Cougars and make their first ever Final Four?
Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament journey begins on Thursday evening at 6:50 p.m. ET on TNT.