College Football Playoff Committee explains Indiana, BYU jumping past Tennessee

Not good news for the Volunteers.

The College Football Playoff Committee followed a popular narrative being spun this week — Tennessee-Georgia is essentially an elimination game.

Georgia tumbled down to No. 12 following their loss to Ole Miss, while Tennessee was jumped by both BYU and Indiana following their win over Mississippi State.

The Volunteers staying at No. 7 would make it pretty easy for the committee to drop the Volunteers all the way out of the top 11 next week, should they lose. Tennessee is a ten point underdog in Athens and will face a team with their backs against the wall on Saturday night.

Tennessee moved up to No. 4 in the coaches poll and No. 6 in the AP poll. So why the difference with the committee? A couple of last-second wins over mediocre teams.

“It really came down to the play last week of both Indiana and BYU, both winning big games on their schedule,” CFP chair Warde Manuel said. “Tennessee, the offense has struggled some the second half of the season, not being consistent early in the year, and we just felt as a committee that at this time Indiana has been playing very well, a close win against Michigan, but other than that, they’ve dominated everyone they’ve played.

“BYU, obviously undefeated, two wins against top-25 opponents, at SMU and against Kansas State. In looking at it, as we assessed all the teams, we just felt that Indiana and BYU earned the 5 and the 6 slot, and Tennessee stayed where they are.”

The Big Ten schedule made all of this possible

A jarring lack of elite matchups is going to pave the way for teams like Penn State, Oregon and Indiana to skate through to the playoff, assuming Ohio State handles Indiana this weekend. More than likely, two of those three teams won’t have to play a conference title game. Also more than likely after Tuesday night’s reveal — they won’t be punished for it.

That’s the nature of 16-team super-conferences, though.

Meanwhile, Tennessee plays both Alabama and Georgia. Alabama played Tennessee, LSU and Georgia. Georgia played Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas. The Longhorns… well… that’s a whole other issue with their best win currently showing as Vanderbilt.

This is far from an official metric below, but it illustrates the point. Just look at the difference in the Big Ten schools against the SEC schools.

What’s left that will sort itself out

• Some obvious big games will provide a little bit of clarity on where things stand, starting this weekend with Tennessee-Georgia. A Tennessee loss puts them in the crowded two-loss group. A Tennessee win keeps them on track for an SEC title appearance and more than likely eliminates Georgia.
• Indiana’s trip to Ohio State is massive because it will be the Hoosiers’ only real shot to play an elite opponent. What happens if the Buckeyes dominate there?
• Texas-Texas A&M will more than likely sort out the SEC Championship picture during the final week of the regular season. The Aggies winning this one would be a major curveball.
• We can’t sleep on Notre Dame’s final two games — hosting Army and then a trip to USC.
• Ole Miss has at Florida and home against Mississippi State left. The Rebels appear to be in great shape, despite the ugly loss to Kentucky. A question the committee may have to end up answering is which loss is worse — at Arkansas or home against Kentucky.
• Alabama has a trip to Oklahoma and then hosts Auburn. The Crimson Tide also appear to be in great shape with back to back dominant wins to smooth over the Vanderbilt loss. There’s always been a timing-of-the-loss issue in the structure of college football, and Alabama certainly appears to be on the right side of things at this point.
• Oregon and Penn State should breeze through their final games. The Big 12 and ACC are essentially locks for one bid each, so their results shouldn’t affect the at-large race without pure chaos.

Bottomline: Tennessee controls its own destiny

Everyone knows Georgia’s season is on the line. As things have shaken out, mainly thanks to the Ole Miss win over Georgia last weekend, Tennessee’s might be too. Play like it — that’s the simple message this week that needs to be delivered.

Kirby Smart is fantastic in these spots. He certainly knows how to motivate and play off of media comments and narratives. However, this team just feels a little different. Carson Beck has regressed without Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey. The running game is struggling. Tennessee brings an elite defensive front to town. Pending the status of Nico Iamaleava, the opportunity is there to just take care of things themselves.

Kickoff between Georgia and Tennessee is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC in Athens.