College Football Top 25 and CFP Bracketology at a Glance

An SEC newcomer leads the way in 2024’s first ranking

Welcome, welcome, one and all. Our Top 25 is back, and the Longhorns of Austin, Texas are leading the charge. With the new season has come massive changes to the landscape of college football. Insert the 12-team playoff and new-look power conferences, and adjustments had to be made to my formula, which I wrote about a little over a year and a half ago here. The SEC and Big Ten have only grown stronger while a conference like the Big 12 has relied on replacing its top two teams by filling out the depth of the conference. While a deeper conference, it won’t be as strong at the top.

I’ve always said it takes five weeks for this formula to stabilize, and also by week five, I will remove the preseason ranking weights and rely solely on what’s happened within the season. Both offensive and defensive EPA (expected points added) per play (from CFBStats), success rate, and yards per play are baked in heavily to this formula, but the result of the games is the heaviest weight.

Without further ado, here is the first Top 25 of the season:

TOP 10 BREAKDOWN

1. TEXAS LONGHORNS | SEC | 3-0
↳ Texas has rode a big, 19-point out of conference win at Michigan with their overall roster talent to the top spot this week. Their offense has been lights out thus far, and it’s been in large part to a combination of a quality rushing attack and Quinn Ewers taking a leap as a passer. Will the Michigan win be of equal quality two months from now? That much is unlikely, but a win like that at the Big House is still the best road win in the nation right now.

2. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE | SEC | 3-0
↳ Alabama under Kalen DeBoer hasn’t missed a beat despite the retirement of Nick Saban, and Jalen Milroe has taken a major step forward as a passer, posting 590 yards across three games and just 52 attempts for eight touchdowns. The offense in general is great, and DeBoer having this kind of versatile weapon at quarterback will carry them to the CFP. They dominated on the road at Camp Randall against Wisconsin. The Tide have rushed for at least 180 yards in each game as well.

3. GEORGIA BULLDOGS | SEC | 3-0 (1-0)
↳ Despite dominating Clemson in week one, Georgia looked much more beatable on the road in Lexington. The defense is still the defense; it might be the best unit in the nation, but the offense is where concern rests. Carson Beck has played well but certainly not mistake-free, and the offense overall is just taking too long to settle into games. In the environment of the SEC this season, they become much more susceptible to a loss than in previous years.

4. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES | Big Ten | 2-0
↳ Ohio State’s uber-soft road schedule thus far likely keeps them out of the top two, but make no mistake about it, this is the most talented team in the nation across the board. Sure, it’s Akron and Western Michigan, but this defense looks mean. The quarterback pressure that wasn’t even there in games against these kinds of opponents last year has ramped up tremendously, posting eight sacks over their first two games. Will Howard at quarterback and the offensive line in pass protection are areas of worry at times, but Howard’s completed 29 of his last 38 passes since starting the first half 6-of-16 against Akron.

5. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS | SEC | 3-0
↳ And here are the Vols. Tennessee has rolled on offense the way I expected to and then some. For many, the concern offensively was revolving around how Nico Iamaleava would adjust in year one as a starter. For me, that was much less of a concern as the field is more open for Nico due to an upgrade in arm talent and weapons, and Tennessee’s ground game has thrived. The Vols have rushed for over 240 yards in all three games thus far, and their win in Charlotte over NC State was as dominant as a top team has looked this season despite NC State probably being just a touch overrated coming into the season.

6. OLE MISS REBELS | SEC | 3-0
↳ Ole Miss, similar to Ohio State, has seen their absurd collection of talent dominate against substantially inferior opponents thus far. They are averaging just shy of 700 yards of total offense per game, and Jaxson Dart leads the nation in passing yards and completion percentage thus far. With Dart, it’s wanting to see if this can sustain even to the 80th percentile against quality opponents because if he can, this is a legitimate SEC and National Championship contender.

7. USC TROJANS | Big Ten | 2-0
↳ If there were a team with the most to prove within this top 10 to prove it belongs in this spot, it’s USC. Luckily for them, they get that chance as they hit the road to Ann Arbor this week against a Michigan squad in the midst of change. Though it’s just two games, the defense post-Alex Grinch is night and day. There is actual aggression and downhill tackling from linebackers and safeties, and doubting a Lincoln Riley offense is likely to never go well. I doubt they stay this high say, a month from now, but shining light on how well overdue changes have benefitted Riley in SoCal is worth it.

8. MIAMI HURRICANES | ACC | 3-0
↳ Early returns on Washington State transfer QB Cam Ward are very good thus far as Ward leads the country in passing touchdowns. The ‘Canes rolled into The Swamp in week one and dominated a now reeling Florida team and have followed it up with blowouts of FCS Florida A&M and the MAC’s Ball State. An interesting test for this Miami defense that has yet to allow 300 total yards of offense in a game thus far comes on the road against USF this week. Alex Golesh’s offense puts up numbers and will be the first really good unit that Miami will face.

9. OREGON DUCKS | Big Ten | 3-0
↳ Oregon finally looked like the team they were hyped up to be on the road in Corvallis this past week. After struggling with Idaho and skating by Boise State at home, the rust appears to have been shaken off just in time for conference play as the Ducks hit the road to face a UCLA team that just fell to Indiana by 29 at home. The ground game opened up for Oregon after two weeks of sub-3.0 yards per carry, and it made a world of difference. Dillon Gabriel has been accurate, but he can’t do it by himself.

10. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS | Big Ten | 2-0
↳ Unsure what to make of Penn State? You’re not alone! A major positive for the Nittany Lions is the downfield passing attack actually exists this season in some capacity, and they’re going to need it as the defense just isn’t the same as what it was last season. Drew Allar will have another MAC opponent to put up some numbers against as Penn State faces a Kent State team that Tennessee put 70 points on, but a real test comes the following Saturday as Brett Bielema’s Illini come to Happy Valley to kick off conference play.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF: AT A GLANCE

Non-Power Conference Auto-bid Tracker

Memphis, riding a three touchdown win over Troy and an upset in Tallahassee over a pretty feeble Florida State team, takes the auto-bid slot for the best non-power conference team thus far as we roll into conference play, but expect this to be a fluid slot as we move throughout the season.

Here are the top 10 Group-of-Five/PAC-12 teams thus far:

The strengths of these conferences will likely play a strong factor in determining who ultimately gets this bid. Here is the mean average of each Group-of-Five conference, not including the PAC-12:

1) Sun Belt: 86
2) American: 94
3) Mountain West: 94.3
4) MAC: 97.2
5) Conference USA: 107.6

The Sun Belt may not be as top heavy early on as it has been in recent seasons with James Madison, but they make up for it with by far the best depth of any Group-of-Five conference. Four teams rank within the top 70, and another five crack the top 100. No other non-power conference has more than six teams in the top 100. The Mountain West, on the other hand, is showing to be potentially top heavy in its early returns thus far. UNLV, Boise State, San José State, and Fresno State all rank within the top 60 teams in the country, but no other team breaks into the top 100 thus far.

Tune back in this time next week and see where the latest Bracketology will shake out!