College Hoops: Projecting the Top 16 Reveal

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament - Second Round - Birmingham — Photo by Andy Hancock/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

Where will the Vols fall?

Later today, CBS will air the Top 16 Bracket Reveal selected by the College Basketball Committee. This will air at 12:30 EST, and the reveal has shed light on what is valued by the Committee. On top of that, it’s proven to be a great predictor towards where each of these teams will fall come Selection Sunday. Just a season ago, no school had a rise or fall of more than one seed line, and only Wisconsin fell completely out of the top 16, falling from a 4-seed to 5-seed.

Now, projecting how this Committee will think is easier said than done, though it’s much easier to understand their thought process compared to their contemporaries in football. As we put out on the site and on Twitter last week, the formula has seen a shake-up. Away/neutral games are valued higher than home games across all quadrants, namely quadrants 1-A and 1. I’ll link the full thought process here, but to briefly sum it up, road and neutral site games are inherently more reflective of a team’s ability to play in the tournament and thus should be equated as such.

If you need an aide for terminology that will be used throughout this article, check out our first bracketology piece from this season here.

With all that being said, let’s get into our projected Top 16, beginning with the juggernaut atop the college basketball world this season.

ONE SEEDS

1. Auburn Tigers

There was no deliberating here. Perhaps the biggest slam dunk on the number one overall seed, Auburn could theoretically lose six of their final seven games and have a better argument for the number one overall seed than just about anyone. Their 7 Quad-1A wins would be tied for the third highest total Quad-1 wins overall behind themselves and a trio of Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky who all have 8. A season ago, Houston racked up 16 Quad-1 wins, but only six of them were Q1A. Auburn has sailed past that with a month’s worth of games remaining, and slowing down isn’t in sight.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

While Auburn has stolen all the headlines this season, all Nate Oats and his squad have done is simmer beneath the spotlight, racking up win after win in SEC play. With a showdown against Auburn later today, the top spot in the SEC is on the line, and while it won’t change how these two teams are ranked in our bracketology, a win for the Tide could get them within realistic striking distance.

3. Duke Blue Devils

There’s a legitimate argument to be made that Duke is the best team in the country. Standing as just one of the two teams who have toppled Auburn this season in one of the year’s best games, Cooper Flagg has elevated this team above the rotting ACC and has given Jon Scheyer his best Blue Devil team thus far. Because of how bad the ACC has been and how it creates minimal opportunities for quality wins and the SEC’s overwhelming depth, Duke has no real shot at the number one overall seed, but their stranglehold on a 1-seed overall is still very strong.

4. Florida Gators

This is where things get tight. With Tennessee’s second loss to Kentucky on the season, the Vols fell off their perch as the final number one overall seed to Florida, whose wins at Auburn and by 30 over Tennessee at home rank among the best wins in the country. Again, this is an incredibly close margin for this final seed by Florida and all four 2-seeds, and my prediction is that the Committee give it to Houston as their résumé has started to match the predictive metrics. As of now, Florida is the leader of the pack, but that is all subject to change on a whim. It could even change this weekend.

TWO SEEDS

5. Tennessee Volunteers

I’m convinced the Vols are allergic to a 1-seed. Any time a seed reveal is set to be announced, a loss by Tennessee precedes it, and sure enough, they did it again, falling at Kentucky by nine. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Their defense is among the best in the nation, but their offensive efficiency is second worst in this field of 16, and a strong group of guards is bound to make their lives miserable. That being said, a hot shooting night from this team is a guaranteed loss, and you’ll just be lucky to keep it within 20. That’s the beauty and madness behind Rick Barnes, though.

6. Houston Cougars

For a while, it felt as if Houston just wasn’t going to win a big game. Joking, of course, but it took Houston until January 25 to rack up their first Quad-1A win, a road win over Kansas, and since then, the Q1 wins have racked up. Despite being 1-3 in Q1A matchups, those three losses have come by a combined 11 points. Kelvin Sampson is always going to have a premier squad, and though this one plays just a bit different than normal offensively, the tenacity defensively is still there, and with six Q1 matchups remaining on their schedule, they’re my favorite to rise to a 1-seed by season’s end.

7. Purdue Boilermakers

Despite losing Zach Edey to the NBA and Mason Gillis to Duke, Purdue is repackaged and really good. Braden Smith has once again led the way as one of the nation’s best point guards, but Trey Kaufman-Renn’s ascension into one of the best players in the Big Ten has served as a launching point for Matt Painter’s squad. This is a team that is dangerous from three, and their biggest weakness that was their lack of depth is developing into a net neutral. Flip the result in a 2-point loss at Michigan, and Purdue is the top 2-seed right now. An underrated Final Four contender.

8. Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M’s performance away from College Station has been stellar in big time games. Of their seven Q1 wins, six of them have come on the road, either in a neutral setting or in a true away game. That’s frankly why they’re here. They have the metrics of your prototypical 3-seed which is likely where the Committee settles on with them, but they’re a very deserving 2-seed.

THREE SEEDS

9. Iowa State Cyclones

This is where a gap starts to build. The margins between that final 1-seed and the final 2-seed are doubly narrow the gap between Texas A&M and Iowa State right now. Iowa State has shown phases of true dominance, but their chances of improving their résumé are few and far between down the stretch as they have just two Q1A games remaining (@ Houston, vs. Arizona).

10. Wisconsin Badgers

B1G | 19-5 | NET: 17th | KenPom: 11th (+25.76) | WAB: 10th (+4.6) | BPI: 15.9 (21st)
Q1A: 1-4 | Q1B: 5-1 | Q2: 6-0 | Q3-4 Losses: 0

This seems to be a bit against consensus, but I not only have Wisconsin as a 3-seed, but I have them has a top 10 seed overall. I anticipate Wisconsin to be a 4-seed by the Committee, for what it’s worth. That’s all to say that the Badgers have managed to do two things: win the Q1 games they’re supposed to on the road and not lose at home. They’ve fallen in friendly confines just once this season. However, they have some fringey Q1 wins, and should they fall off, the Badgers could tumble, but with three Q1A games remaining, they’ll have opportunity to solidify their standing.

11. Arizona Wildcats

Arizona was poised to be the top 3-seed heading into the weekend, and all they had to do was beat Kansas State on the road to get another Q1 win. However, that did not happen. This is a very good team, but they don’t know their identity. Their best wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech are countered by double-digit losses to that same Red Raiders team, Duke, and Wisconsin.

12. Michigan Wolverines

Looking for that high risk, high reward team to mortgage your bracket around? It’s going to be with the Michigan Wolverines. Capable of beating great teams as evidenced by their wins over Purdue and at Wisconsin and UCLA. Counter to that are their losses on a neutral court to bubble team Wake Forest and a Minnesota team more than comfortably out of the NCAA Tournament picture. They’ve also narrowly escaped with road wins over Indiana and Rutgers. Michigan has a major chance to rise here down the stretch as their six Q1 opportunities make for an enticing Big Ten race.

FOUR SEEDS

13. Kentucky Wildcats

A team equally capable of beating any team in the country as they are losing by double digits, Kentucky’s up-and-down runs this season need studied. The good: wins over Duke by 5 on a neutral floor, Tennessee x2, and Florida at home. The bad: losses by 14 at Ole Miss, 13 at Georgia, and by 20 against Ohio State on a neutral floor. With five Q1 games remaining, Kentucky’s quantity of quality wins, should they continue to rack them up, will vault them into 2-seed discussions very quickly.

14. Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas started out on fire, beating Duke, Michigan State, and North Carolina. Since then, it’s been pretty rocky. Since the middle of January, Kansas has not won consecutive games. They are 3-3 over their last six, and their offense has been, well, offensive. After putting up 86 points in a loss to Houston at home and 91 points in a win over UCF, Kansas has not cracked 75 points since. The Jayhawks have also not picked up a win in a true road game over a team in the field this season.

15. Illinois Fighting Illini

For Illinois, staying healthy this season has been its biggest battle. Between injuries to their best players, Kasparas Jakucionis and Tomislav Ivisic, fielding a fully healthy roster for games in Big Ten play have been few and far between. However, they have everybody back on the court at long last, and it comes with a major stretch run to finish the season. Illinois, in desperate need for quality road wins, will get a couple chances (at Wisconsin, Michigan; neutral vs. Duke) as well as a few Q1 home games for good measure.

16. Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss will not be in the top 16 from the Committee in all likelihood, but they are deserving of being here. Though their predictive metrics fall behind teams behind them, their résumé begs to differ. A 10-point win at Alabama, 14-point win at home against Kentucky, and 23-point win over Louisville stand as their three Q1 wins. Four of their five Q1 wins have come away from home, and this team plays everybody tough. Of their five Q1A losses, three of them have come down to final possession shots to tie or win the game (Purdue, Texas A&M, Mississippi State). This is a very dangerous team from that mid-seed level to watch out for in March.