Everything you need to know.
The madness is here.
Brackets are set and picks are being made — who do you have coming out of the Midwest region? Top seed Houston is a sizable favorite, but Tennessee isn’t too far off. Dangerous teams like Kentucky and Gonzaga are lingering, while one of the top upset favorites in McNeese State is set to face Clemson.
Let’s dive in deeper.
The top seeds
1. Houston
Rugged, tough, defense first — remind you of anyone? The top two seeds in this region really mirror each other, both ranking inside the top three of KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric. Houston ran through the Big 12 Tournament to lock up this top seed.
The Cougars obliterated Big 12 play, losing only once in overtime to Texas Tech. They haven’t lost since, ripping off 13 in a row to finish things off.
Senior guard LJ Cryer leads the way for Houston, scoring over 15 points per game and shooting over 42 percent from long range. Guards Emmanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan join him, also each shooting north of 42 percent from three-point range.
2. Tennessee
Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack get one final go at the NCAA Tournament, hoping to finally finish one off for Rick Barnes. Tennessee’s veteran core is rounded out by the elite shooting Chaz Lanier, versatile big man Igor Milicic and rim protector Felix Okpara. Sixth-man Jordan Gainey is an x-factor that has provided plenty of pop recently.
Tennessee’s main question continues to be depth. Injuries and unexpected departures have left Barnes with an eight — sometimes even seven — man rotation. That challenge popped up last weekend against Florida and it could be a storyline over the next couple of weeks.
If Tennessee’s hitting from deep, they can beat anyone with how they play on the defensive end of the floor.
3. Kentucky
Kentucky was a rollercoaster ride in Mark Pope’s first season. There was a ton of good — beating Tennessee twice, taking down Duke, Louisville and Florida — but there were plenty of headscratchers too. The Wildcats dropped games to Texas, Ohio State (by 20), Georgia, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. Kentucky ends up 22-11 overall and 10-8 in conference play.
Pope dealt with plenty of injuries throughout the season and that’s no different this week. Third leading scorer Lamont Butler’s status remains up in the air coming into the weekend, as it has for much of the season.
Kentucky can play with anyone on the offensive end of the floor. Kenpom’s eight-ranked offense is always dangerous with Pope always keeping the greenlight on from deep. Tennessee knows all about that, experiencing two of Kentucky’s better efforts all season long.
4. Purdue
It would be a true bracket if Tennessee and Purdue weren’t in each other’s region. The Boilermakers had a respectable first season without auto-whistle Zach Edey in the lineup, going 22-11 overall and 13-7 in Big Ten play. Purdue ascended up inside of the top ten at one point in the season.
Purdue wrapped up their season on a sour note, going just 3-6 in their final nine games ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
Matt Painter’s squad still has All-American guard Braden Smith running the show, and Trey Kaufman-Renn can fill it up, averaging over 20 points per game. After that though, this squad just feels like it’s missing a few pieces of the puzzle from previous years.
Best of the rest
5. Clemson
Fresh off of an Elite Eight run a year ago, the Tigers are back for more. They feature plenty of experience and balance, complete with capable guards and big men. KenPom’s 18th best team was hot down the stretch, winning nine straight before narrowly losing to Louisville in the ACC semifinals.
Getting past McNeese and Will Wade won’t be easy, but they certainly could handle Purdue in the second round if they do.
6. Illinois
If anyone can figure out this team, let me know. They’ve been up and down all season long, and they didn’t change in the final few weeks. Three straight ugly losses turned into a five-game winning streak before losing to Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament.
The Illini ended up 12-8 in Big Ten play. They feel like one of those teams that can beat anyone or lose to anyone, and they’ll draw a decent first test with the winner of Texas/Xavier in the first round.
7. UCLA
After an awful start to Big Ten play, Mick Cronin and the Bruins found their footing in February. Huge wins over Wisconsin, Oregon and Michigan State turned UCLA’s season around, eventually earning them their No. 7 seed in the Midwest.
UCLA moved all the way back up to No. 27 overall in KenPom’s metric, anchored by a top 20 overall defense. Inconsistent offense may end up being their downfall, however. They draw a Utah State team that sputtered down the stretch, before likely running into No. 2 Tennessee in the second round.
8. Gonzaga
Boy, this certainly is an interesting eight-seed, isn’t it? The Zags had a down year by their standards, but still absolutely could end up being the last team standing in the Midwest region. A KenPom darling, Gonzaga has a top ten offense (9th) to go with their 9th overall ranking.
Gonzaga went 25-8 on the year, finally beating St. Mary’s in the West Coast Conference title game. They’re led by point guard Ryan Nembhard, who leads the entire country in assists. Big man Graham Ike leads the Zags in scoring with over 17 points per game.
Assuming they can get past Georgia, this is a scary second round game for Houston.
Double-digit seeds to know
No. 11 Xavier
A 1-4 start in Big East play didn’t doom the Musketeers. Sean Miller rallied the troops and found a way to bounceback, starting with a couple of big wins over UConn and Marquette. A hot finish down the stretch put Xavier in the dance, even though they came up just short against Marquette in the Big East Tournament.
This is an old team that has proven they can really shoot the basketball down the stretch. Junior guard Ryan Conwell put up 38 in their loss to Marquette, shooting well over 60 percent from three. Can Xavier ride the wave of momentum? They draw Texas to open for the right to play No. 6 Illinois.
No. 12 McNeese State
Seemingly everyone’s favorite upset pick, McNeese enters with expectations here. It’s likely Will Wade’s final ride with the Cowboys, and he’ll be looking to be the next 12-over-5 upset with Clemson looming. McNeese ranks 16th in points allowed per game, giving up just 64. The Cowboys got tournament experience last season, but came up short against Duke.
McNeese has close non-conference calls against Alabama (lost by 10), Liberty (lost by 4) and Mississippi State (lost by 3) early in the season. They proceeded to blow through the Southland, going 19-1 in conference play.
Clemson is just a 7.5 point favorite over McNeese on Thursday.
No. 13 High Point
The longest winning streak in the country? That belongs to High Point. The Panthers have ripped off 14 straight heading into the NCAA Tournament. The Big South Champions have the 25th ranked offensive in the country, according to KenPom. With shooters everywhere, High Point has the all the makings of a potential Cinderella team.
And who do they draw? 4-seed Purdue, who — well — has been on the wrong side of some underdog teams before.
NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Odds (Per Fanduel Sportsbook)
Houston +120
Tennessee +360
Gonzaga +800
Kentucky +1000
Illinois +1100
Purdue +1500
Clemson +1500
UCLA +2300
Xavier +9000
Georgia +9000
Texas +10000
Utah State +11000
McNeese State +12000
SIUE +25000
High Point +25000
Wofford +25000
In addition, FanDuel is offering a Dog of the Day Jackpot:
What is it?
- Bet the lowest seeded team to advance that day and win a share of $1M in bonus bets!
Timing
- 3/20 – 3/23
- This will occur every day of the first weekend of the tournament
- Daily promotion (4x total, 1x each day – Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
- Marketing for this promotion will begin on 3/17 with first occurrence on 3/20
How to Play
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- Bet the lowest seeded team (higher number: 16, 15, 14, etc) to advance that day and win a share of $1M in bonus bets!
- Lowest seed = Higher number (16, 15, 14, 13, etc.)
NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Predictions
Round of 64
1) Houston vs. 16) Southern Illinois — HOUSTON
8) Gonzaga vs. 9) Georgia — GONZAGA
5) Clemson vs. 12) McNeese State — CLEMSON
4) Purdue vs. 13) High Point — HIGH POINT
6) Illinois vs. 11) Texas/Xavier — XAVIER
3) Kentucky vs. 14) Troy — KENTUCKY
7) UCLA vs. 10) Utah State — UCLA
2) Tennessee vs. 15) Wofford — TENNESSEE
Round of 32
1) Houston vs. 8) Gonzaga — HOUSTON
5) Clemson vs. 13) High Point — CLEMSON
3) Kentucky vs. 11) Xavier — XAVIER
2) Tennessee vs. 7) UCLA — TENNESSEE
Sweet 16
1) Houston vs. 5) Clemson — HOUSTON
2) Tennessee vs. 11) Xavier — TENNESSEE
Elite Eight
1) Houston vs. 2) Tennessee — HOUSTON