With the NCAA’s unveiling of their top 16, we unveil a bracket
It is a beautiful Monday morning, and there’s no better day than today to reveal our full bracket breakdown.
We’re gonna get into this quickly as there’s a lot to go over, but we will take a quick look at the entire seeding and then break it down into the top and bottom regions at a time. Here is the entire bracket:
No need to mince words here. Let’s start with our top two 1-seeds, the Auburn Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide, and the South and Midwest regions:
SOUTH REGION
Lexington, KY
1 vs. 16: Auburn currently sits as the top overall seed, and their draw sits in Lexington, Kentucky, and across from them will be the winner of a First Four game in Dayton between Quinnipiac (MAAC) and American (Patriot). Auburn will obviously be a resounding favorite, likely in the range of 40 points.
8 vs. 9 — New Mexico vs. Nebraska: Brice Williams in March is all fans wanted coming into the season, and as things stand, we’re going to get it. The Nebraska do-it-all star spearheads a Fred Hoiberg squad rolling into the heart of February having won five of their last six, four of which are Q1 wins. Against them, however, comes Richard Pitino’s most padlocked tournament-bound squad out of New Mexico yet, as they’ve won eight straight.
Denver, CO
5 vs. 12 — Marquette vs. Yale: Cam Jones leads an up-and-down Marquette team. Yale’s outside shooting is as good as anyone in the country, knocking down better than 39% from deep, but their bread and butter is what they can create inside off of it as their 3-point rate is a bottom 20 mark in the nation. Styles make fights, but can Yale withstand Marquette’s athleticism?
4 vs. 13 — Texas Tech vs. Akron: Akron has not lost in 2025. The Zips are unbeaten in MAC play, and their blistering three-point shooting and overall efficiency on offense is why. Akron’s 59.8% effective field goal percentage ranks second in the nation since January 1, and while the quality of play in the MAC isn’t the best, their guard depth can give Tech fits.
MIDWEST REGION
Lexington, KY
1 vs. 16 — Alabama resides as the top seed in the Midwest Region as the #2 overall seed, and they draw the winner of the second 16-seed First Four game between Southern and Southeast Missouri. Alabama will have no trouble here, but their fun possibly comes in the Round of 32.
8 vs. 9 — Baylor vs. UConn: A battle of two of the more disappointing teams in the country is a fascinating 8/9 matchup not just in the game itself but also with who matches up with Alabama. These are two very talented teams who have struggled to put it together completely at any point this season. Can Hurley make another run off UConn’s back-to-back titles or can Scott Drew prove he’s still in that upper echelon of coaches after yet another stumble backward?
Providence, RI
5 vs. 12 — St. John’s vs. McNeese: Rick Pitino vs. Will Wade. If The Sopranos existed on a basketball court. St. John’s has ascended into arguably the nation’s best defense. Winners of 11 of their last 12, the Johnnies have taken the Big East by storm. The flip side of this is a McNeese team that has become the household powerhouse of the low majors. They are 34-2 in conference play in Wade’s two seasons, and with an improved defense and St. John’s’ struggles from the field, they may be poised to knock off a power school in March.
4 vs. 13 — Kentucky vs. Arkansas State: This would be a fascinating recipe for Rick Pitino to square off with Mark Pope. Coach versus former player, master versus student, Pope is poised to make a statement in his first year with the ‘Cats, and while neither will have easy first round games, it’s the biggest marquee matchup of the first weekend in this bracket.
SOUTH REGION (cont.)
Seattle, WA
6 vs. 11 — Missouri vs. VCU: There are caveats to VCU making the tournament (need to win 5 of last 6 to solidify at-large or win A-10 Tournament), however, whoever matches up with VCU should they get in, whether it be a 5, 6, or 7 seed, will be a popular upset pick. The Rams are a very good team who play excellent perimeter defense, and their offense has gotten better as the season has gone on. That being said, Missouri also gets very good perimeter play, and they have been on a roll since Caleb Grill’s return from injury.
3 vs. 14 — Arizona vs. Utah Valley: The final Caleb Love March Experience will get underway, and while their first round game likely won’t see much of a challenge, it’s easier said than done under Tommy Lloyd. In 2024, Long Beach State hung around for an uncomfortably long time before Arizona remembered they were a 2-seed, and the year before, Princeton upset the 2-seeded Wildcats. That being said, I think Utah Valley is a placeholder here as while they’re projected to win the regular season WAC crown, I anticipate Grand Canyon coming out of the WAC Tournament.
Raleigh, NC
7 vs. 10 — UCLA vs. San Diego State: A West Coast battle on the East Coast, Mick Cronin versus Brian Dutcher would make for a great defensive battle. These two top-20 defenses in the same weekend section as Tennessee is…certainly interesting.
2 vs. 15 — Tennessee vs. Towson: Though I’ve been skeptical on the Vols this season for March, that doesn’t apply here. The struggles for the Vols come with groups of good guards. Towson plays wing-heavy as their lack of size forces them to, and while they defend well enough and have won 12 in a row, their lack of shooting would likely lose them this game pretty early on.
MIDWEST REGION (cont.)
Milwaukee, WI
6 vs. 11 — Illinois vs. Texas: A battle between two teams struggling to find consistency, albeit for different reasons. For Texas, the grind of the SEC is very punishing, and they simply don’t have the horses to compete with the top of the conference consistently. However, for the Illini, just getting a healthy starting five on the court would be a win.
3 vs. 14 — Iowa State vs. Lipscomb: TJ Otzelberger has done a great job at Iowa State, turning them back into a mainstay in the Big 12. Gunning for his second straight top-10 KenPom finish, the Cyclones have reached a pair of Sweet 16’s under Otzelberger, but are looking to take it a step further. The first step here would be against a Lipscomb team that wants to shoot the ball from three a lot. Should Iowa State finish the season strong, a 2-seed is still not out of the question.
Milwaukee, WI
7 vs. 10 — Saint Mary’s vs. West Virginia: Despite having yet another excellent team out in Moraga, Randy Bennett is still trying to find that elusive spot in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010. It took this group a couple months to get the ball rolling, but once WCC play came around, they’ve been borderline unstoppable. The Gaels are 13-1 in conference play and have played just four games within single digits. The biggest difference to this year’s Gaels is the offense. On top of that, this would be a fortuitous matchup as West Virginia’s injuries have snowballed into poor play, and they’re going to struggle to hold onto a tournament spot at the pace we’re going.
2 vs. 15 — Wisconsin vs. Montana: Wisconsin is one of the hottest risers in the nation right now. From a 5-seed a month ago to a 2-seed currently, the Badgers have taken off in February. John Tonje has turned himself into a legitimate All-American candidate under Greg Gard, averaging over 25 points per game over his last eight.
Moving on to the bottom half of the bracket, we’ll now get into the West and East regions.
WEST REGION
Wichita, KS
1 vs. 16: Up next is the third number one seed, the Houston Cougars, and while they are not yet a majority one seed, they will be soon…very soon. With now six Q1 wins, their résumé is matching their predictive metrics. They boast a top 5 strength of record now, and they’re 5-3 in road/neutral Quad-1 games, and at the rate BYU is going, they’re going to add another Q1 victory soon with their 31-point win over the Cougars back in January. They are 16-0 across Quads 2 through 4, and only one game of those 16 have been within single digits.
8 vs. 9 — Oregon vs. Gonzaga: Here sits another 8/9 matchup featuring disappointing teams. With Oregon, their disappointment is not weighted with preseason expectations. Theirs is purely how they started versus how it’s going now. The Ducks started 9-0 with four straight Q1 wins over Texas A&M, San Diego State, Alabama, and USC. They’ve won their last two games, but before that, they had lost five straight. As for Gonzaga, the overwhelming feeling about this team is that they’re wasting talent. Despite still being a top 10-15 team across predictive metrics, they simply aren’t winning the quality games they’ve needed to. Losses to West Virginia and Kentucky in overtime on neutral courts could have gone either way, but they both went against the Zags. Losses to UConn and UCLA simply came down to late game execution. They also sit two games back of Saint Mary’s in the WCC. The offense is still great, but the defense is so far from being contender worthy.
Cleveland, OH
5 vs. 12 — Ole Miss vs. UC San Diego: I promise I don’t hate Ole Miss or Chris Beard (…eh), but this is the go-to 5/12 upset special. UC San Diego is currently a top-40 team on KenPom, are knocking on the door of NET top-40, and they are just wasting teams in the Big West right now, including an 18-point Q1 win at UC Irvine last Saturday. Ole Miss is a bit underrated, simply because no one wants to talk about them, but they are a very good defensive team, generating steals and turnovers at very high rates, and on offense, they don’t turn the ball over, boasting the nation’s lowest turnover rate. This current batch of 5/12 matchups, however, is not very friendly to the 5-seeds.
4 vs. 13 — Michigan State vs. High Point: Polar opposites meet again with this low-major/high-major first round matchup. Michigan State is a bad outside shooting team that defense extremely well and relies second-chance points and creating driving lanes to get to the free throw line to put the ball in the basket. High Point, on the other hand, is extremely efficient, shooting over 36% from three, nearly 10% better than Sparty, with a top-30 offensive efficiency in the country. That’s all to say that while I do think High Point is capable of plucking off a 4-seed, but it wouldn’t be Michigan State. The pure athlete difference would be too overwhelming.
EAST REGION
1 vs. 16: Duke is our fourth and final 1-seed, residing in Raleigh for the first weekend. This iteration of the Blue Devils is Jon Scheyer’s best team in his short time as the head coach, and Cooper Flagg is, for my money, the leading candidate for National Player of the Year. Flagg is the best player in the nation, and his supporting cast is as good as it gets with fellow freshman, Kon Knueppel, shooting 38.2% from deep. Tyrese Proctor has taken to his role as an off-ball guard excellently, shooting 41% from three.
8 vs. 9 — Memphis vs. BYU: It certainly won’t be easy for Duke in the second round as either an extremely talented Memphis team or white hot BYU squad will be waiting for them. BYU just beat a Kansas team that beat Duke back in November, and Memphis has a win over Clemson, who also beat Duke. Memphis is hurt overall by their conference while BYU only now started figuring things out. They are a pair of top 20 teams masked within the 8-9 region.
5 vs. 12 — Maryland vs. Drake: Another big 5/12 upset special, 23-3 Drake and their top-10 steal rate defense would be set to try and knock off Maryland. I will say, though, that very few teams that Maryland will play will have a better player than 6-foot-10 freshman Derik Queen.
4 vs. 13 — Mississippi State vs. Jacksonville State: Mississippi State is way too volatile to stick as a 4-seed, but coming off a 16-point win over Texas A&M, that’s where they sit. Jacksonville State would be a favorable matchup against a Chris Jans defense as they are a middle of the road offense who plays undersized.