We’re back, and better than ever
It’s been a few weeks.
I spent the better part of the last three weeks mostly battling the flu, but also fixing the seeding formula. One main change was made above all else: valuing road/neutral wins more than home wins. A simple fix that almost has that “duh” feeling, but the previous formula had valued it as well, just not as much as I thought necessary. The reason for this is simply that every game played in the NCAA Tournament is a neutral game, so valuing what teams do in similar or more challenging venues during the regular season shows what a team is more capable of than that of them beating a good team at home.
With all that being said, let’s get into it!
Seeding
One-seed Update
Despite a home loss to Florida, Auburn’s ranking as the number one overall seed is still strongly intact. In fact, the difference in margin between Auburn and Alabama is similar to the difference between Florida and Texas Tech. It would take a pretty monumental collapse by Auburn and a furious finish from the Tide to flip this. It should be noted that Alabama is as hot as any team in the country right now. Winners of four straight road Quad-1 games in SEC play, Nate Oats’s Crimson Tide have scored at least 80 points in six straight games.
As things stand, the SEC holds six of the top eight seeds, and the most intriguing race will be that of the final one seed. Tennessee went on the road and throttled Oklahoma, but hot on their tails is Texas A&M…and Houston…and Florida…and Purdue.
Florida’s road win in The Jungle over Auburn stands as the best win in the country of any team. With that, all four 2-seeds sit within very real striking distance of the Vols and that final 1-seed. Tennessee’s eight Quad-1 wins rank as the most among the group with A&M and Purdue closely lagging behind with seven. A&M has risen steadily largely due to six of their seven Quad-1 wins coming at neutral sites or on the road. Houston, however, rules the predictive metrics, sitting third in KenPom and in the NET.
Mid-seed Mania
The madness in this tournament lies within the four through seven seeds. Memphis is as close to being a 5-seed as Texas Tech is to falling to a 6-seed, and St. John’s’ chances at leaping everyone above them on the 5-line is as possible as Maryland beating Nebraska on the road and leaping all the way from the bottom of the 6-seeds to the top of the 5-line. It is mayhem in the middle here as the separation between Kansas as the final 3-seed all the way down to St. John’s is razor thin, and speaking of the Johnnies…
Red Hot Johnnies
Keep an eye on St. John’s if you already aren’t. Rick Pitino’s squad are undefeated in 2025, and they’re fresh off back to back wins over Marquette and UConn. Despite an overall down year in the Big East, the Johnnies’ ascension to the top of the conference is no surprise. St. John’s ranks among the titans in many defensive metrics, and they rank third overall in defensive efficiency on KenPom. They’ve allowed 70+ points just twice since the New Year.
The only thing keeping the Red Storm on the five line is their lack of quality wins. Quantity of quality rules all in March.Of the teams above them in the NET, only Gonzaga has fewer Q1 wins than the Johnnies’s three. They have two remaining Q1 opportunities, both on the road. The first will come Tuesday night at Villanova, and then they’ll go to Marquette on March 7. There are also two fringe games that could move to Q1 games remaining. Both are home games against Creighton and UConn. Should either of them move into the top 30 in the NET, they would become Q1 games. While this is a 5-seed right now, there aren’t five teams I’m taking to beat this team currently.
Bubble Watch
Oh, the ACC. Of the three ACC teams pictured above, they combine for just two Quad-1 wins, and when you add in Pitt, it climbs to a whopping three.
Both BYU and Arizona State have five Q1 games remaining. The strength of the Big XII shines through here as Cincinnati has four. Per Bart Torvik’s win percentage measures, BYU is projected to go 4-4 over their final eight games. They are predicted to win two of those remaining Q1 games, giving them four Q1 wins on the season. That could be enough to move them above the cut line should they not drop home games to Kansas State or Utah along the way.
Things are much harder for Arizona State, however, as they’re projected to finish their season 2-6 over their final eight. Losers of three straight including at Oklahoma State on Sunday, they are favored to win just one of their final eight games. The Sun Devils are lagging behind on metrics among other things, and they’d need to go 5-3 with three Q1 wins, and get wins versus TCU and at Utah to have a shot.