It is only December 6th so how is it possible to already know who will cut down the nets in April? Well, an interesting fact made its way around Reddit in the recent days. At the nine game mark in the season, teams rated inside the KenPom top four have been the last nine NCAA basketball champions and won 11 of the last 12. So, let’s dive into these top four teams to see who is going to have the best chance.
As of game nine, the top four teams on KenPom are Auburn, Tennessee, Duke, and Gonzaga. For further context, these rankings are made from a statistical analysis of offensive and defensive ratings. The defensive rating is subtracted from the offensive rating for an adjusted margin of efficiency.
NCAA Basketball Champion Revealed
Auburn Tigers: 8-1, +32.12 rating
Auburn just suffered their first loss of the season at Cameron Indoor against Duke. However, they lost nothing in defeat. Auburn went into a tough environment and gave Duke quite the game. They shot it well. Defended with a ton of physicality. Showed depth at guard and in the paint. Truthfully, Auburn stamped themselves as a legit title contender on that game alone. Before that, they won the Maui Invitational which was a loaded tournament.
They currently have the number one offense on KenPom which is always impressive. Their adjusted offensive efficiency of 127.8 is nearly 3 points higher than the next best offense. Auburn loves to run and they get shots up early and often. They also likely have the National Player of the Year right now in Johni Broome. Fully expect them to be in San Antonio for the Final Four.
Tennessee Volunteers*: 8-0, +30.99 rating
Tennessee has been truly perfect to start the season. Okay fine, they have not played 9 games yet. However, this is clearly one of the National Championship contenders. They have played four power conference teams so far and their closest margin of victory was 15 points which was against Baylor. It seems this is always the case but Rick Barnes found a dominant transfer that might lead the nation in scoring. Chaz Lanier has been great to start the year and is a big key for the Vols future.
The defense is always the key for Tennessee and this group ranks 2nd with a defensive rating of 89.8. They have veteran guards with Lanier and Zakai Ziegler. They have physical bigs and they have plenty of depth. The Vols should battle Auburn for SEC supremacy but both should expect to make deep March runs; something that has been fleeting for Tennessee and Barnes for many years.
Duke Blue Devils: 7-2, +30.79 rating
The Blue Devils are one of the younger teams in the country with three true freshmen starters. However, they also have 3 experienced role players that really help them bridge the gap. Cooper Flagg is always going to get the headlines for the Blue Devils but guys like Sion James and Maliq Brown have had major impacts thus far.
The Blue Devils have the number one defense in the nation with a rating of 89.2. That is quite impressive especially for a young team. They also have a top 12 offense with a rating of 120. However, Duke is just a few possessions away from having wins over Kansas, Kentucky, @Arizona, and Auburn thus far. Lot of ifs of course. The biggest piece of this team is that they should only get better and better as the season continues.
Gonzaga Bulldogs: 7-2, +29.71
Gonzaga started out very hot with a blowout win over Baylor and continued with their good start until shockingly dropping a game to West Virginia and then losing to Kentucky. The Bulldogs bring back most of their roster from a solid group last year and the result is lofty expectations. Mark Few is still trying to break through the National Championship barrier but this year he has a great shot.
The Bulldogs are led by a dominant offense which ranks number 2 in the nation at 125.4. A big piece of that is veteran guard Ryan Nembhard who is averaging an absurd 10+ assists per game to go along with 10+ points. They also get plenty of scoring from Khalif Battle and Graham Ike.
San Antonio Final Four Comes to Light
Of course, literally anything could happen. However, history favors the bold and history would tell us that one of these four teams will win it all. It will be interesting to see which one peaks at the end of the year but most college basketball fans would tell you these four teams are the best in the country.
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