The Tennessee Titans can not afford to defeat the Houston Texans on Sunday
The Tennessee Titans are entering Sunday’s regular-season finale with the Houston Texans currently owning the No. 2 overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft. They moved up two spots from the fourth pick following Sunday’s loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, paired with unlikely wins by the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders.
A Titans defeat to the Texans would, at worst, lock them into the second overall selection. If paired with a victory by the New England Patriots over the Buffalo Bills, Tennessee would actually move up to No. 1 overall. The Titans absolutely can’t risk defeating the Texans in a meaningless regular-season finale (sorry, Amy Adams Strunk, it means nothing) and tumble down the draft order.
A total of nine teams around the NFL currently possess four victories or less. That means the results in Week 18 will greatly alter the current draft order. A victory over the Texans would risk the Titans falling as low as seventh overall in the order.
The difference in value between the second and seventh overall selections is 1100 points on the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, as pointed out on social media by Mike Herndon. That is the equivalent of the 14th overall selection, while also dropping five spots in each of the subsequent rounds. A victory would do irreparable damage to the Titans’ draft positioning, because without a third-round selection (L’Jarius Sneed trade), there’s no realistic way for the Titans to make-up forfeiting the equivalent of a 14th overall pick in value.
The difference in value between the 2nd and 7th pick is 1100 points on the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. That is the equivalent of the 14th overall pick (and that’s not even considering the value of dropping five spots in each of the subsequent rounds). Massive value.
— Mike Herndon (@MikeHerndonNFL) December 30, 2024
In a draft class that lacks top-end talent, a Titans team possessing massive holes at premium positions (QB, WR, EDGE, OT) can not afford to draft closer to 10th overall. It’s been said that Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter is the lone prospect in this year’s crop that would have been a top-10 selection in last year’s draft. If the Titans clinch No. 2 overall, they can draft Hunter, a quarterback like Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward, or trade down with a QB-needy team, accumulate more picks (present and future), and draft a prospect like WR Tetairoa McMillan or EDGE Abdul Carter. The latter is probably the best-case scenario.
Pride aside, beating Houston (even in the Oilers throwbacks) absolutely can not happen this weekend.